How Football Explains Everything

Jim Geraghty forecasts the coming November bloodbath for the Democrats.

Here are my 99 races, grouped into five levels of difficulty. I’ve used three different measurements – the Department of Homeland Security’s old color-code alert system, a comparable degree of difficulty to beating NFL teams, and a quick assessment.

Go read it, it’s ok, I’ll wait. It is quite entertaining. What a talented man.

Then, commenter Impatient quickly analyzed and provided the input necessary for a lovely piechart.

So, deepening the football analogy a little, we should expect the following actual results:
– The Rams won 6.3% of their games last year, so we should expect 12/13 Republicans in that category to win.
– The Redskins won 25% of their games, so we should expect 19/26 Repubs to advance in that category.
– The Panthers won 50% of their games, so we expect 16/33 in that category.
– Eagles won 69%, so we expect 6/21.
– And finally, the Colts won 88%, so we hope for 1/6.

Total: Republicans pick up 54 seats, assuming they don’t lose any, which I don’t know to be a safe assumption.

Tada! Now there’s a picture I like!

8 Comments

  1. GM Roper said,

    May 8, 2010 at 9:34 am

    Hmm, is anyone starting an office pool? If so, I have dibs on at least 42-46 seats at two to one odds!

  2. Obi's Sister said,

    May 8, 2010 at 9:35 am

    That is a superb idea!

  3. GM Roper said,

    May 8, 2010 at 9:42 am

    🙂

  4. Phineas Fahrquar said,

    May 8, 2010 at 10:47 am

    Given the moo of the electorate, I’m thinking 70+ isn’t just a pipe-dream.

  5. Phineas Fahrquar said,

    May 8, 2010 at 10:48 am

    Er… “mood.” I doubt the voters are all the cattle the Democrats think we are.🙂

  6. Obi's Sister said,

    May 8, 2010 at 3:10 pm

    I agree. And I think the backlash will surprise everyone. What do you think of GM’s idea about a pool? Kinda fits with the football metaphor…

  7. Obi's Sister said,

    May 8, 2010 at 3:16 pm

    Hmmm…. what should I charge per square?

  8. Phineas Fahrquar said,

    May 8, 2010 at 3:55 pm

    Could be fun.🙂


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