Jim Geraghty forecasts the coming November bloodbath for the Democrats.
Here are my 99 races, grouped into five levels of difficulty. I’ve used three different measurements – the Department of Homeland Security’s old color-code alert system, a comparable degree of difficulty to beating NFL teams, and a quick assessment.
Go read it, it’s ok, I’ll wait. It is quite entertaining. What a talented man.
Then, commenter Impatient quickly analyzed and provided the input necessary for a lovely piechart.
So, deepening the football analogy a little, we should expect the following actual results:
– The Rams won 6.3% of their games last year, so we should expect 12/13 Republicans in that category to win.
– The Redskins won 25% of their games, so we should expect 19/26 Repubs to advance in that category.
– The Panthers won 50% of their games, so we expect 16/33 in that category.
– Eagles won 69%, so we expect 6/21.
– And finally, the Colts won 88%, so we hope for 1/6.
Total: Republicans pick up 54 seats, assuming they don’t lose any, which I don’t know to be a safe assumption.
Tada! Now there’s a picture I like!